货币、银行和金融市场经济学 英文版2025|PDF|Epub|mobi|kindle电子书版本百度云盘下载

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第一部分 本书简介1

CREDITS1

ANSWERS TO SELECTED QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1

GLOSSARY1

INDEX1

Why Study Financial Markets?3

Preverw3

WHY STUDY MONEY,BANKING,AND FINANCIAL MARKETS?3

CHPRTER13

第一章 为什么要研究货币、银行、金融市场3

PART1 Introduction 13

The Stock Market4

The Bond Market and Interest Rates4

The Foreign Exchange Market6

Why Study Banking and Financial Institutions?7

Financial Innovation8

Banks and Other Financial Institutions8

Structure of the Financial System8

Money and Business Cycles9

Why Study Money and Monetary Policy?9

Money and Inflation10

Money and Interest Rates12

Conduct of Monetary Policy12

How We Will Study Money,Banking,and Financial Markets13

Budget Deficits and Monetary Policy13

Concluding Remarks14

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems15

Appendlx to Chapter117

Aggregate Output and Income17

Defining Aggregate Output,Income,and the Price Level17

Aggregate Price Level18

Real Versus Nominal Magnitudes18

CHAPTER220

第二章 金融体系概述20

Preview20

AN OVERVIEW OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM20

Function of Financial Markets21

Structure of Financial Markets23

Debt and Equity Markets23

Primary and Secondary Markets23

Exchanges and Over-the-Counter Markets24

Money and Capital Markets25

Financal Market Instruments25

Money Market Instruments25

Following the Financial News Money Market Rates28

Capital Market Intruments28

Box1 Mortgage-Backed Securities30

Internationalization of Financial Markets31

Internation Bond Market,Eurobonds,and Eurocurrencies32

Worid Stock Markets32

Function of Financial Intermediaries32

Following tbe Financial News Foreign Stock Market Indexes33

Transaction Costs34

Asymmetric Information:Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard34

Box2 The Importance of Financial Intermediaries to Securities Markets:An International Comparison35

Financial Intermediaries37

Depository Institutions37

Contractual Savings Institutions40

Reguiation of the Financial System41

Investment Intermediaries41

Increasing Information Available to Investors42

Ensuring the Soundness of Financial Intermediaries42

Improving Control of Monetary Policy45

Financial Regulation Abroad45

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems45

第三章 什么是货币48

CHAPTER348

WHAT IS MONEY?48

Preview48

Meaning of Money48

Functions of Money49

Medium of Exchange49

Unit of Account50

Store of Value51

Evolution of the Payments System52

Box1 Birth of the Euro:Will It Benefit Europe?53

Electronic Money:A Coming Global Phenomenon55

Ate We Moving to a Cashiess Society?56

Measuring Money57

The Federal Reserve s Monetary Aggregates57

Following the Financial News The Monetary Aggregates59

How Reliable are the Money Data?60

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems61

第二部分 金融市场65

PART11 Financial Markets65

CHAPTER467

UNDERSTANDING INTEREST RATES67

Preview67

第四章 理解利率67

Measuring Interest Rates68

Present Value69

Yield to Maturity70

Box1 Negative T-Bill Rates?Japan Shows the Way76

Other Measures of Interest Rates76

Current Yield76

Yield on a Discount Basis77

Application Reading the Wall Street Jurnal:The Bond Page79

Following the Financial News Bond Prices and Interest Rates80

The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns82

Maturity and the Volatility of Bond Returns:Interest-Rate Risk84

Box2 Helping Investors to Select Desired Interest-Rate Risk86

The Distinction Between Real and Nominal Interest Rates86

Summary86

Box3 With TIPS,Real Interest Rates Have Become Observable in the United States89

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems89

CHAPTER592

THE BEHAVIOR OF INTEREST RATES92

Preview92

第五章 利率的波动92

Expected Returns93

Wealth93

Determinants of Asset Demand93

Liquidity94

Risk94

Theory of Asset Demand95

Loanable Funds Framework:Supply and Demand in the Bond Market95

Demand Curve95

Supply Curve97

Market Equilibrium98

Supply and Demand Analysis98

Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates100

Shifts in the Demand for Bonds101

Shifts in the Supply of Bonds104

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Interest Rate Due to106

Expected Inflation or Business Cycle Expansions106

Changes in Expected Inflation:The Fisher Effect107

Business Cycle Expansion108

Application Explaining Low Japanese Interest Rates110

Application Reading the Wall Street Journal:The Credit Markets Column111

Following the Financial News The Credit Markets Column112

Application Have Low Savings Rates in the United States Led to Higher Interest Rates?112

Liquidity Preference Framework:Supply and Demand in the Market for Money113

Shifts in the Demand for Money116

Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates116

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Interest Rate Due to Changes in Income,the Price Level,or the Money Supply117

Changes in Income117

Changes in the Price Level117

Changes in the Money Supply117

Shifts in the Supply of Money117

Application Money and Interest Rates120

Does a Higher Rate of Growth of the Money Supply Lower Interest Rates?121

Following the Financial News Forecasting Interest Rates124

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems126

CHAPTER6128

THE RISK AND TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES128

Preview128

第六章 利率风险与时期构成128

Risk Structure of Interest Rates128

Difault Risk129

Application The Stock Market Crash of 1987and the Junk Bond-Treasury Spread132

Application What If Treasury Securities Were No Longer Default-Free?133

Liquidity134

Income Tax Considerations134

Summary136

Application Effects of the Clinton Tax Increase on Bond Interest Rtes136

Term Structure of Interest Rates136

Following the Financial News Yield Curves137

Expectations Theory138

Segmented Markets Theory142

Liquidity Premium Theory143

Evidence on the Term Structure145

Summary146

Application Interpreting Yield Curves,1980--2000147

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems148

CHAPTER7151

THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET151

Preview151

第七章 外汇市场151

Foreign Exchange Market152

What Are Foreign Exchange Rates?153

Why Are Exchange Rates Important?153

Following the Financial News Foreign Exchange Rates154

Exchange Rates in the Long Run155

Law of One Price155

How Is Foreign Exchange Traded?155

Theory of Purchasing Power Parety156

Why the Theory of Purchasing Power Parity Cannot Fully Explain Exchange Rates156

Factors That Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run157

Exchange Rates in the Short Run159

Comparing Expected Returns on Domestic and Foreign Deposits160

Interest Parity Condition162

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market163

Explaining Changes in Exchange Rates165

Shifts in the Expected-Return Schedule for Foreign Deposits165

Shifts in the Expected-Return Schedule for Domestic Deposits167

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate:Two Examples168

Changes in Interest Rates168

Changes in the Money Supply171

Exchange Rate Overshooting171

Application Why Are Exchange Rates So Volatile?172

Application The Dollar and Interest Rates,1973--1999173

Application The Euro s First Year175

Application Reading the Wall Street Journal:The Foreign Exchange Column175

Following tbe Financial News The Foreign Exchange Column176

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems177

第三部分 金融机构179

PART111 Financial Institutions179

CHAPTER8181

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STRUCTURE181

Basic Puzzles About Financial Structure Throughout the World181

第八章 金融机构的经济分析181

Preview181

Transaction Costs185

How Transaction Costs Influence Financial Structure185

How Financial Intermediaries Reduce Transaction Costs185

Asymmetric Information:Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard186

The Lemons Problem:How Adverse Selection Influences Financial Structure187

Lemons in the Stock and Bond Markets188

Tools to Help Solve Adverse Selection Problems188

How Moral Hazard Affects the Choice Between Debt and Equity Contracts192

Moral Hazard in Equity Contracts:The Principal-Agent Problem193

Tools to Help Solve the Principal-Agent Problem194

How Moral Hazard Influences Financial Structure in Debt Markets195

Tools to Help Solve Moral Hazard in Debt Contracts196

Summary198

Application Financial Development and Economic Growth198

Financial Crises and Aggregate Economic Activity200

Factors Causing Financial Crises200

Application Financial Crises in the United States202

Box1 Case Study of a Financial Crisis:The Great Depression204

Application Financial Crises in Emerging-Market Countries:Mexico,1994--1995,and East Asia,1997--1998205

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems209

CHAPTER9211

THE BANKING FIRM AND THE MANAGEMENT OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS211

Preview211

The Bank Balance Sheet211

第九章 企业借款业务以及金融机构的管理211

Liabilities212

Assets214

Box1 Understanding Loan Loss Reserves215

Basic Operation of Bank216

General Principles of Bank Management219

Liquidity Management and the Role of Reserves220

Asset Management223

Liability Management224

Capital Adequacy Management225

Application Strategies for Managing Bank Capital227

Application Did the Capital Crunch Cause a Credit Crunch in the Early 1990s?228

Managing Credit Risk229

Screening and Monitoring229

Long-Term Customer Relationships231

Loan Commitments231

Collateral and Compensating Balances232

Credit Rationing232

Managing Interest-Rate Risk233

Gap and Duration Analysis234

Application Strategies for Managing Interest-Rate Risk235

Generation of Fee Income236

Off-Balance-Sheet Activities236

Loan Sales236

Trading Activities and Risk Management Techniques237

Box2 Barings,Daiwa,and Sumitomo:Rogue Traders and the Principal-Agent Problem238

Financial Innovation239

Responses to Changes in Demand Conditions239

Responses to Changes in Supply Conditions240

Avoidance of Existing Regulations242

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems245

CHAPTER10248

BANKING INDUSTRY:STRUCTURE AND COMPETITION248

Preview248

第十章 银行业：行业结构和行业竞争248

Historical Development of the Banking System249

Multiple Regulatory Agencies251

Styucture of the U.S.Commercial Banking Industry251

Response to Branching Restrictions253

Restrictions on Branching253

Bank Consolidation and Nationwide Banking255

The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994256

Box1 Comparison of Banking Structure in the United States and Abroad257

What Will the Structure of the U.S.Banking Industry Lood Like in the Future?257

Are Bank Consolidation and Nationwide Banking Good Things?258

Separation of the Banking and Other Financial Service Industries259

Erostion of Glass-Steagall259

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999:Repeal of Glass-Steagall259

Box2 The Citicorp-Travelers Merger260

Implications for Financial Consolidation260

Separation of Banking and Other Financial Services Industries Throughout the World261

Thrift Industry:Regulation and Structure261

Savings and Loan Associations261

Mutual Savings Banks262

Credit Unions262

International Banking263

Box3 The Common Bond Controversy263

Eurodollar Market264

Structure of U.S.Banking Overseas264

Box4 Ironic of the Eurodollar Market265

Foreign Banks in the United States265

Financial Innovation and the Decline of Traditional Banking267

Behind the Decline:Four Financial Innovations267

Decline of Traditional Banking270

Reasons for the Decline271

Banks Responses274

Decline of Traditional Banking in Other Industrialized Countries275

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems276

CHAPTER11279

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF BANKING REGULATION279

Preview279

Asymmetric Information and Bank Regulation279

第十一章 银行业规则的经济分析279

Government Safety Net:Deposit Insurance and the FDIC280

Restrictions on Asset Holdings and Bank Capital Requirements283

Bank Supervision:Chartering and Examination284

Box1 The Basel Accord on Risk-Based Capital Requirements:Where Is It Heading?285

A New Trend in Bank Supervision:Assessment of Risk Management286

Disclosure Requirements287

Consumer Protection288

Restrictions on Competition288

Box2 The Community Reinvestment Act:A Political Hot Button289

International Banking Regulation290

Problems in Regulating International Banking291

Box3 The BCCI Scandal292

Summary292

The 1980s U.S.Banking Crisis:Why?293

Early Stages of the Crisis293

Later Stages of the Crisis:Regulatory Forbearance295

Competitive Equality in Banking Act of 1987296

Political Economy of the Savings and Loan Crisis297

Principal-Agent Problem for Regulators and Politicians297

Application Principal-Agent Problem in Action:Charles Keating and the Lincoln Savings and Loan Scandal298

Savings and Loan Bailout:Financial Institutions Reform,Recovery,and Enforcement Act of 1989299

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991301

Application Evaluating FDICIA and Other Proposed Reforms of the Banking Regulatory Systern302

Limits on the Scope of Deposit Insurance302

Prompt Corrective Action304

Risk-Based Insurance Premiums304

Other FDICIA Provisions304

Other Proposed Changes in Banking Regulations305

Overall Evaluation306

Banking Crises Throughout the World306

Scandinavia306

Latin America307

Russia and Eastern Europe308

Japan309

East Asia310

Déj? Vu All Over Again310

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Probiems311

CHAPTER12313

NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS313

Preview313

Insurance Companies313

第十二章 非银行金融机构313

Life Insurance Companies314

Propenty and Casualty Insurance Companies315

The Competitive Threat from the Banking Industry316

Box1 The Woes of Lioyd s of London317

Box2 Are Independent Insurance Agents Going the Way of the Milkman?318

Application Insurance Management318

Screening319

Risk-Based Premiums319

Restrictive Provisions320

Prevention of Fraud320

Cancellation of Insurance320

Deductibles320

Coinsurance321

Limits on the Amount of Insurance321

Summary321

Pension Funds321

Private Pension Plans323

Public Pension Plans323

Finance Companies324

Box3 Should Social Security Be Privatized?324

Mutual Funds325

Money Mardet Mutual Funds327

Hedge Funds327

Box4 The Long-Term Capital Management Debacle328

Government Financial Intermediation329

Federal Credit Agencies329

Government Loan Guarantees:Another Grisis Waiting to Happen?330

Securities Market Institutions330

Investment Banks331

Following the Financial News Securities Issues332

Securities Brokers and Dealers332

Organized Exchanges333

Box5 The Return of the Financial Supermarket?334

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems335

Box6 The Inter.?t Comes to Wall Street335

CHAPTER13337

FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES337

Preview337

Forward Markets337

Interest-Rate Forward Contracts337

第十三章 金融衍生品337

Application Hedging with Interest-Rate Forward Contracts338

Pros and Cons of Forward Contracts338

Financial Futures Markets339

Financial Futures Contracts339

Following the Financial News Financial Futures340

Application Hedging with Financial Futures342

Organization of Trading in Financial Futures Markets342

The Globalization of Financial Futures Markets343

Explaining the Success of Futures Markets343

Application Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk346

Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk with Forward Contracts347

Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk with Futures Contracts347

Options348

Option Contracts349

Following the Financial News Futures Options349

Profits and Losses on Option and Futures Contracts350

Application Hedging with Futures Options353

Factors Affecting the Prices of Option Premiums354

Summary355

Interest-Rate Swap Contracts356

Interest-Rate Swaps356

Application Hedging with Interest-Rate Swaps357

Advantages of Interest-Rate Swaps357

Disadvantages of Interest-Rate Swaps358

Financial Intermediaries in Interest-Rate Swaps358

Application Are Financial Derivatives a Worldwide Time Bomb?359

Box1 The Orange County Bankruptcy360

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems361

PART IV Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary Policy365

第四部分 中央银行和货币政策365

CHAPTER14367

STRUCTURE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM367

Preview367

Origins of the Federal Reserve System367

第十四章 中央银行的机制和联邦储备体系367

Box1 Inside the Fed The Political Genius of the Founders of the Federal Reserve System368

Federal Reserve Banks369

Formal Structure of the Federal Reserve System369

Member Banks371

Box2 Inside the Fed The Special Role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Yowk372

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System373

Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)374

The FOMC Meeting374

Box3 Inside the Fed The Role of the Research Staff375

Box4 Inside the Fed Green,Blue,and Beige:What Do These Colors Mean at the Fed?377

Informal Structure of the Federal Reserve System377

Box5 Inside the Fed The Role of Member Banks in the Federal Reserve System379

How Independent Is the Fed?379

Bank of Canada382

Bank of England382

Structure and Independence of Foreign Central Banks382

Bank of Japan383

European Central Bank383

The Trend Toward Greater Independence384

Explaining Central Bank Behavior384

Box6 Inside the Fed Games the Fed Plays385

Should the Fed Be Independent?386

The Case for Independence386

The Case Against Independence387

Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance in Seventeen Countries388

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems389

CHAPTER15391

MULTIPLE DEPOSIT CREATION AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS391

Preview391

Four Players in the Money Supply Process391

第十五章 各种储蓄以及货币供应系统391

The Fed s Balance Sheet and the Monetary Base392

Assets392

Liabilities393

Monetary Base394

Control of the Monetary Base395

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations395

Shifts from Deposets into Currency400

Box1 Foreign Exchange Rate Intervention and the Monetary Base401

Discount Loans401

Overview of the Fed s Ability to Control the Monetary Base402

Multiple Deposit Creation:A Simple Model402

Deposit Creation:The Single Bank402

Deposit Creation:The Banking System404

Multiple Deposit Contraction406

Deriving the Formula for Multiple Deposit Creation408

Critlque of the Simple Model409

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems410

第十六章 货币供应的决定因素412

DETERMINANTS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY412

Preview412

CHAPTER 16412

The Money Supply Model and the Money Multiplier413

Deriving the Money Multiplier413

Intuition Behind the Money Multiplier415

Factors That Determine the Money Multiplier416

Changes in the Required Reserve Ratiord417

Changes in the Currency Ratio｛C/D｝417

Changes in the Excess Reserves Ratio｛ER/D｝418

Additional Factors That Determine the Money Supply420

Changes in the Nonborrowed Monetary Base MBn421

Changes in Discount Loans DL from the Fed421

Market Interest Rates and the Discount Rate421

Overview of the Money Supply Process422

Application Explaining Movements in the Money Supply,1980--1999424

Application The Great Depression Bank Panics,1930--1933427

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems430

Appendex to Chapter16432

The M2 Money Multiplier432

Factors That Determine the M2 Money Multiplier433

Changes in rD,｛C/D｝,and｛ER/D｝433

Respones to Changes in ｛T/D｝and｛MMF/D｝433

第十七章 货币政策工具435

CHAPTER17435

TOOLS OF MONETARY POLICY435

Preview435

The Market for Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate435

Supply and Demand in the Market for Reserves436

How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the Federal Funds Rate437

Open Market Operations439

A Day at the Trading Desk440

Advantages of Open Market Operations441

Discount Policy442

Operation of the Discount Window442

Lender of Last Resort444

Box1 Insede the Fed Discounting to Troubled Banks:Franklin National and Continental Illinois445

Box2 Inside the Fed Discounting to Prevent a Financial Panic:The Black Monday Stock Market Crash of 1987446

Advantages and Disadvantages of Discount Policy447

Announcement Effect447

Application Evaluating Proposed Reforms of Discount Policy448

Should Discounting Be Abolished?448

Should the Discount Rate Be Tied to a Market Rate of Interest?448

Reserve Requirements449

Advantages and Disadvantages of Reserve Requirement Changes449

Application Evaluating Proposed Reforms of Reserve Requirements450

Should Reserve Requirements Be Abolished?450

Should Reserve Requirements Be Raised to 100%?451

Application Why Have Reserve Requirements Been Declining Worldwide?451

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems452

CHAPTER18454

CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY:GOALS AND TARGETS454

Preview454

Goals of Monetary Policy454

High Employment454

第十八章 货币政策目标：中间目标和最终目标454

Economic Growth455

Price Stability456

Interest-Rate Stability456

Stability of Financial Markets456

Box1 The Growing European Commitment to Price Stablilty457

Stability in Foreign Exchange Markets457

Conflict Among Goals457

Central Bank Strategy:Use of Targets458

Choosing the Targets459

Criteria for Choosing Intermediate Targets461

Creteria for Choosing Operating Targets463

Fed Policy Procedures:Historical Perspective463

The Early Years:Discount Policy as the Primary Tool463

Discovery of Open Market Operations464

The Great Depression464

Box2 Inside the Fed Bank Panics of 1930--1933:Why Did the Fed Let Them Happen?465

Reserve Requirements as a Policy Tool466

War Finance and the Pegging of Interest Rates:1942--1951466

Targeting Money Markey Conditions:The 1950s and 1960s467

Targeting Monetary Aggregates:The 1970s468

New Fed Operating Procedures:October 1979--October1982470

De-emphasis of Monetary Aggregates:October 1982--Early 1990s472

Federal Funds Targeting Again:Early 1990s and Beyond472

International Considerations473

Box3 International Policy Coordination:The Plaza Agreement and the Louvre Accord474

The Taylor Rule,NAIRU,and the Phillips Curve474

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems476

CHAPTER19478

THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM478

Preview478

第十九章 国际金融体系478

Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market478

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply478

Box1 Inside the Fed A Day at the Federal Reserve BanK of New York s Foreign Exchange Desk479

Unsterilized Intervention481

Sterilized Intervention482

Balance of Payments483

Following the Financial News The Balance of Payments484

Current Account485

Capital Account486

Official Reserve Transactions Balance486

Methods of Financing the Balance of Payments486

Evolution of the International Financial System487

Gold Standard487

Bretton Woods System488

Box2 The Euro s Challenge to the Dollar489

Managed Float492

European Monetary System(EMS)493

Application The Foreign Exchange Crisis of September1992494

Application The Mexican Peso Crisis of December 1994496

Application The East Asian Currency Crisis of 1997496

Capital Controls497

Controls on Capital Outflows497

Controls on Capital Inflows498

The Role of the IMF499

Should the IMF Be an International Lender of Last Resort?499

International Considerations and Monetary Policy501

Balance-of-Payments Considerations502

Direct Effects of the Foreign Exchange Market on the Money Supply502

Exchange Rate Considerations503

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems503

CHAPTER 20506

MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY:THE INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE506

Preview506

第二十章 货币政策策略：国际经验506

The Role of a Nominal Anchor507

The Time-Inconsistency Problem507

Exchange-Rate Targeting508

Advantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting508

Disadvantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting509

When Is Exchange-Rate Targeting Desirable for Industrialized Countries?511

When Is Exchange-Rate Targeting Desirable for Emerging Market Countries?512

Currency Boards512

Box1 Argentina s Currency Board513

Dollarization513

Monetary Targeting in Canada,the United Kingdom,Japan,Germany,and Switzerland516

Monetary Targeting516

Box2 The European Central Bank s Monetary Policy Strategy518

Inflation Targeting521

Disadvantages of Monetary Targeting521

Advantages of Monetary Targeting521

Inflation Targeting in New Zealand,Canada,and the United Kingdom522

Advantager of Inflation Targeting524

Disadvantages of Inflation Targeting527

Nominal GDP Targeting529

Monetary Policy with an Implicit Nominal Anchor530

Advantages of the Fed s Approach531

Disadvantages of the Fed s Approach531

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems533

PART IV Monetary Tbeory535

第五部分 货币理论535

CHAPTER 21537

THE DEMAND FOR MONEY537

Preview537

第二十一章 货币的需求537

Velocity of Money and Equation of Exchange538

Quantity Theory of Money538

Quantity Theory539

Quantity Theory of Money Demand539

Cambridge Approach to Money Demand540

Is Velocity a Constant?541

Keynes s Liquidity Preference Theory543

Transactions Motive543

Precautionary Motive543

Speculative Motive543

Putting the Three Motives Together544

Transactions Demand547

Further Developments in the Keynesian Approach547

Precautionary Demand550

Speculative Demand550

Friedman s Modern Quantity Theory of Money552

Distinguishing Between the Friedman and Keynesian Theories553

Empirical Evidence on the Demand for Money556

Interest Rates and Money Demand556

Stability of Money Demand558

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems561

CHAPTER22563

THE KEYNESIAN FRAMEWORK AND THE ISLM MODEL563

Preview563

第二十二章 凯恩斯体系和ISLM模型563

Determination of Aggregate Output564

Consumer Expenditure and the Consumption Function565

Box1 Meaning of the Word Investment567

Investment Spending567

Equililbrium and the Keynesian Cross Diagram568

Expenditure Multiplier570

Application The Collapse of Investment Spending and the Great Depression572

Gorernment s Role573

Role of International Trade575

Summary of the Determinants of Aggregate Output576

The ISLM Model579

Equilibrium in the Goods Market:The Is Curve579

Equilibrium in the Market for Money:The LM Curve583

ISLM Approach to Aggregate Output and Interest Rates585

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems586

CHAPTER23589

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN THE ISLM MODEL589

Preview589

第二十三章 ISLM模型下的财政金融政策589

Factors That Cause the IS Curve to Shift590

Factors That Cause the LM Curve to Shift592

Changes in Equilibrium Level of the Interest Rate and Aggregate Output594

Response to a Change in Monetary Policy594

Response to a Change in Fiscal Policy595

Application The Vietnam War Buildup and the Rise in Interest Rates,1965--1966597

Effectiveness of Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy599

Monetary Policy Versus Fiscal Policy:The Case of Complete Crowding Out599

Application Targeting Money Supply Versus Interest Rates601

ISIM Model in the Long Run605

ISLM Model and the Aggregate Demand Curve607

Deriving the Aggregate Demand Curve607

Factors That Cause the Aggregate Demand Curve to Shift608

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems610

Aggregate Demand612

Preview612

第二十四章 货币供求总量分析612

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS612

CHAPTER24612

Following the Financial News Aggregate Output,Unemployment,and the Price Level613

Monetarist View of Aggregate Demand613

Keynesian View of Aggregate Demand615

The Crowding-Out Debate616

Aggregate Supply617

Shifts in the Aggregate Supply Curve618

Equilibrium in the Short Run619

Equilibrium in Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis619

Equilibrium in the Long Run620

Shifts in Aggregate Demand623

Shifts in Aggregate Supply625

Shifts in the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve:Real Business Cycle Theory and Hysteresis627

Conclusions629

Application Explaining Past Business Cycle Episodes629

Vietnam War Buildup,1964--1970629

Negative Supply Shocks,1973--1975 and 1978--1980630

Favorable Supply Shocks,1995--1999631

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems632

Preview634

CHAPTER 25634

第二十五章 金融政策机制的原理634

TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS OF MONETARY POLICY:THE EVIDENCE634

Framework for Evaluating Empirical Evidence635

Structural Model Evidence635

Reduced-Form Evedence636

Advantages and Disadvantages of Structural Model Evidence636

Advantages and Disadvantages of Reduced-Form Evidence637

Box1 Perils of Reverse Causation:A Russian Folk Tale Conclusions638

Box2 Perils of Ignoring an Outside Driving Factor:How to Lose a Presidenteal Election639

Early Keynesian Evidence on the Importance of Money639

Objections to Early Keynesian Evidence640

Early Monetarist Evidence on the Importance of Money642

Timing Evidence643

Statistical Evidence645

Historical Evidence647

Overview of the Monetarist Evidence648

Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy648

Box3 Real Business Cycle Theory and the Debate on Money and Economic Activity649

Traditional Interest-Rate Channels649

Other Asset Price Channels650

Credit View654

Box4 Consumers Balance Sheets and the Great Depression657

Why Are Credit Channels Likely to Be Important?658

Application Credit Crunch and Slow Recovery from the 1990--1991 Recession658

Lessons for Monetary Policy659

Summary,Kry Terms,Questions and Problems661

MONEY AND INFLATION664

CHAPTER26664

第二十六章 货币及通货膨胀664

Preview664

Money and Infiation:Evidence664

Box1 Inflation and Money Growth Rates in Latin America,1989--1999665

German Hyperinflation,1921--1923666

Recent Episodes of Rapid Inflation666

Meaning of Inflation667

Views of Inflation668

Monetarist View668

Keynesian View669

Summary671

High Employment Targets and Inflation672

Origins of Inflationary Monetary Policy672

Budger Deficits and Inflation676

Application Explaining the Rise in U.S. Inflation,1960--1980680

Activist/Nonactivist Policy Debate683

Responses to High Unenployment684

Activist and Nonactivist Positions685

Expectations and thd Activist/Nonactivist Debate686

Rules Versus Discretion:Conclusions687

Box2 Perils of Accommodating Policy:The Terrorism Dilemma688

Application Importance of Credibility to Volcker s Victory over Inflation688

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems689

第二十七章 期望理论及有效资本市场691

THEORY OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS691

Preview691

CHAPTER27691

Role of Expectations in Economic Activity692

Theory of Rational Expectations694

Formal Statement of the Theory696

Rationale Behind the Theory696

Implications of the Theory696

Efficient Markets Theory:Rational Expectations in Financial Markets697

Rationale Behind the Theory699

Stronger Version of Efficient Markets Theory700

Evidence on Efficient Markets Theory700

Evidence in Favor of Market Efficiency700

Box1 An Exception That Proves the Rule:Ivan Boesky702

Application Should Foreign Exchange Rates Follow a Random Walk?704

Evidence Against Market Efficiency704

Overview of the Evidence on Efficient Markets Theory706

Application Practical Guide to Investing in the Stock Market707

Followtng tbe Financial News Stock Prices707

Box2 Should You Hire an Ape as Your Investmtent Adviser?708

How Valuable Are Published Reports by Investment Advisers?708

Do Stock Prices Always Rise When There Is Good News?709

Should You Be Skeptical of Hor Tips?709

Efficient Markets Prescription for the Investor710

Evidence on Rational Expectations in Other Markets710

Application What Does thd Stock Market Crash of 1987 Tell Us About Rational Expectations and Efficient Markets?711

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems713

第二十八章 有效期望：政策应用715

Preview715

CHAPTER 28715

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS:IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY715

The Lucas Critique of Policy Evaluation716

Econometric Policy Evaluation716

Example:The Term Structrue of Interest Rates717

New Classical Macroeconomic Model718

Effects of Unanticipated and Anticipated Policy718

Box1 Proof of the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition720

Can an Expansionary Policy Lead to a Decline in Aggregate Output?721

New Keynesian Model722

Implications for Policymakers722

Effects of Unanticipated and Anticipated Policy723

Implications for Policymakers725

Comparison of the Two New Models with the Traditional Model725

Short-Run Output and Price Responses726

Stabilization Policy728

Anti-inflation Policies729

Credibility in Fighting Inflation731

Application Credibility and the Reagan Budget Deficits733

Successful Anti-inflation Prograrm733

Box2 Ending the Bolivian Hyperinflation:Case Study of a Successful Anti-inflation Program733

Impact of the Rational Expectations Revolution734

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems736