统计思想 英文版2025|PDF|Epub|mobi|kindle电子书版本百度云盘下载

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CHAPTER 1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales1

1.1 What Is Statistics？1

1.2 Seven Statistical Stories with Morals2

◆Case study 1.1：Who Are Those Speedy Drivers？2

◆Case Study 1.2：Disaster in the Skies？3

◆Case Study 1.3：DidAnyoneAsk Whom You've Been Dating？3

contents出版说明4

◆Case Study 1.4：Who Are Those Angry Women？4

序5

◆Case Study 1.5：Does Prayer Lower Blood Pressure？5

◆Case Study 1.6：Does Aspirin Reduce Heart Attack Rates？5

◆Case Study 1.7：Does the Internet Increase Loneliness and Depression？6

1.3 The Common Elements in the Seven Stories7

KEYTERMS8

EXERCISES9

REFERENCES10

CHAPTER 2 Tuming Data into Information12

2.1 Raw Data13

2.2 Types of Data14

2.3 Summarizing One or Two Categorical Variables18

2.4 Finding Information in Quantitative Data23

2.5 Pictures for Quantitative Data28

2.6 Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Variables32

2.7 Bell-Shaped Distributions of Numbers40

EXERCISES46

KEY TERMS46

REFERENCES51

CHAPTER 3 Gathering Useful Data52

3.1 Description or Decision？Using Data Wisely53

3.2 Speaking the Language of Research Studies55

◆CaseStudy3.1：LeadExposureandBadTeeth60

3.3 Designing a Good Experiment61

◆Case Study 3.2：Kids and Weight Lifting61

◆Case Study 3.3：Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches66

3.4 Designing a Good Observational Study67

◆Case Study 3.4：Baldness and Heart Attacks67

3.5 Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and Observational Studies69

EXERCISES74

KEY TERMS74

REFERENCES78

CHAPTER 4 Sampling：Surveys and How To Ask Questions80

4.1 The Beauty of Sampling81

4.2 Sampling Methods84

4.3 Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling93

◆Case Study 4.1：The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 193697

4.4 How to Ask Survey Questions98

◆Case Study 4.2：No Opinion of Your Own？Let Politics Decide102

KEY TERMS102

EXERCISES103

REFERENCES107

CHAPTER 5 Relationships Between Quantitative Variables108

5.1 Looking for Patterns with Scatterplots110

5.2 Describing Linear Patterns with a Regression Line115

5.3 Measuring Strength and Direction with Correlation122

5.4 Why Answers May Not Make Sense128

5.5 Correlation Does Not Prove Causation133

◆Case Study 5.1：AWeightyIssue135

KEY TERMS137

EXERCISES137

REFERENCES143

CHAPTER 6 Relationships Between Categorical Variables144

6.1 Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables145

6.2 Risk，Relative Risk，Odds Ratio，and Increased Risk148

6.3 Misleading Statistics about Risk151

6.4 The Effect of a Third Variable and Simpson's Paradox154

6.5 Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2×2 Table157

◆Case Study 6.1：Drinking，Driving，and the Supreme Court163

KEY TERMS165

EXERCISES165

REFERENCES171

CHAPTER 7 Probability172

7.1 Random Circumstances173

◆Case Study 7.1：A Hypothetical Story—Alicia Has aBadDay174

7.2 Interpretations of Probability176

7.3 Probability Definitions and Relationships181

7.4 Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities186

7.5 Strategies for Finding Complicated Probabilities192

7.6 Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities199

7.7 Coincidences and Intuitive Judgments about Probability202

KEY TERMS209

EXERCISES209

REFERENCES214

CHAPTER 8 Random Variables216

8.1 What is a Random Variable？217

8.2 Discrete Random Variables219

8.3 Expectations for Random Variables223

8.4 Binomial Random Variables228

8.5 Continuous Random Variables233

8.6 Normal Random Variables236

8.7 Approximating Binomial Distribution Probabilities243

8.8 Sums，Differences，and Combinations of Random Variables245

◆Case Study 8.1：Does Caffeine Enhance the Taste of Cola？251

KEY TERMS252

EXERCISES252

REFERENCES257

CHAPTER 9 Means and Proportions as Random Variables258

9.1 Understanding Dissimilarity among Samples259

9.2 Sampling Distributions for Sample Proportions261

9.3 What to Expect of Sample Means265

9.4 What to Expect in Other Situations：Central Limit Theorem270

9.5 Sampling Distribution for Any Statistic272

9.6 Standardized Statistics274

9.7 Student's t-Distribution：Replacing σwith s276

9.8 Statistical Inference278

◆Case Study 9.1：Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do？279

KEY TERMS279

EXERCISES280

REFERENCES285

CHAPTER 10 Estimating Proportions with Confidence286

10.1 The Language and Notation of Estimation288

10.2 Margin of Error289

10.3 Confidence Intervals290

10.4 Calculating a Margin of Error for 95％Confidence292

10.5 General Theory of Confidence Intervals for a Proportion296

10.6 Choosing a Sample Size for a Survey301

10.7 Using Confidence Intervals to Guide Decisions302

◆Case Study 10.1：Extrasensory Perception Works with Movies304

◆Case Study 10.2：Nicotine Patches versus Zyban？305

◆CaseStudy10.3：WhataGreatPersonality306

KEY TERMS306

EXERCISES307

REFERENCES311

CHAPTER 11 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions312

11.1 Formulating Hypothesis Statements314

11.2 The Logic of Hypothesis Testing：What if the Null Is True？316

11.3 Reaching a Conclusion about the Two Hypotheses318

11.4 Testing Hypotheses about a Proportion320

11.5 The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance331

11.6 RealImportance versus Statistical Significance334

◆Case Study 11.1：The Internet and Loneliness：Case Study 1.7 Revisited335

11.7 What Can Go Wrong：The Two Types of Errors335

◆Case Study 11.2：An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print339

KEY TERMS340

EXERCISES340

REFERENCES345

CHAPTER 12 More about Confidence Intervals346

12.1 Examples of Different Estimation Situations347

12.2 Standard Errors350

12.3 Approximate 95％Confidence Intervals354

12.4 General Confidence Intervals for One Mean or Paired Data357

12.5 General Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means（Independent Samples）363

12.6 The Difference Between Two Proportions（Independent Samples）370

12.7 Understanding Any Confidence Interval373

◆Case Study 12.1：Confidence Interval for Relative Risk：Case Study 3.4 Revisited373

◆Case Study 12.2：Premenstrual Syndrome？Try Calcium374

Summary of Formulas for Confidence Intervals375

KEY TERMS376

EXERCISES376

REFERENCES383

CHAPTER 13 More about Significance Tests384

13.1 The General Ideas of Significance Testing386

13.2 Testing Hypotheses about One Mean or Paired Data387

13.3 Testing the Difference Between Two Means（Independent Samples）396

13.4 Testing the Difference Between Two Population Proportions404

13.5 The Relationship Between Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals409

13.6 The Two Types of Errors and Their Probabilities411

13.7 Evaluating Significance in Research Reports415

Summary of Chapter 13 Procedures416

KEYTERMS416

EXERCISES416

REFERENCES423

CHAPTER 14 More about Regression424

14.1 Sample and Population Regression Models426

14.2 Estimating the Standard Deviation for Regression431

14.3 Inference about the Linear Regression Relationship435

REFERENCES436

14.4 Predicting the Valuey for an Individual439

14.5 Estimating the Meany at a Specified x441

14.6 Checking Conditions for Using Regression Models for Inference443

CaseStudy 14.1：AContested Election447

KEY TERMS449

EXERCISES450

REFERENCES455

CHAPTER 15 More about Categorical Variables456

15.1 The Chi-square Test for Two-Way Tables457

15.2 Analyzing 2×2 Tables468

15.3 Testing Hypotheses about One Categorical Variable：Goodness of Fit473

◆CaseStudy15.1：Do You Mind if I Eat the Blue Ones？477

KEYTERMS479

EXERCISES479

CHAPTER 16 Analysis of Variance488

16.1 Comparing Means with an ANOVA F-Test489

16.2 Details of One-Way Analysis of Variance497

16.3 Other Methods for Comparing Populations503

16.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance507

KEY TERMS511

EXERCISES511

REFERENCES516

CHAPTER 17 Turning Information into Wisdom518

17.1 Beyond the Data519

17.2 Transforming Uncertainty into Wisdom522

17.3 Making Personal Decisions522

17.4 Control of Societal Risks525

17.5 Understanding Our World528

17.6 Getting to Know You530

17.7 Words to the Wise532

EXERCISES533

REFERENCES535

Appendix of Tables537

Answers to Selected Exercises543

Index553